tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-87185551349619917612024-02-19T02:23:35.566+00:00Risk RiskIdeas,opinions and information on risks past present and future.Andrew Lawshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00547782154606726079noreply@blogger.comBlogger152125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-46976175931495032972011-01-01T11:26:00.003+00:002011-01-01T11:28:40.065+00:00New Year's glass half emptyNew Year is a good time to note that optimists see the hour glass is half empty. There is still time for more experiences written in sand.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-25535788333310164372010-10-27T06:46:00.001+01:002010-10-27T06:48:15.139+01:00Boxing cleverWhat is the best ratio of thoughts outside the box to ticks within?David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-36774860981314159382010-02-11T11:02:00.004+00:002010-02-11T11:26:22.323+00:00Safe work is the door to all workThe Toyota mantra is "Safe work, reliable work, skilled work. Safe work is the door to all work. Let us pass through this door first."<br /><br />As a simple expression of a risk management philosophy which all workers can understand it has worked well until the wheels started metaphorically coming off the Toyota juggernaut.<br /><br />Some Toyota workers consider that the recalls are down to having recruited people who do not have the Toyota work ethic, but the recall problems are not the result of shoddy workmanship which would be rectified by recalling batches made by a particular shift in a plant. The problems are rather a matter of design. Some of the design problems are down to the enthusiasm with which Toyota cuts costs, an approach which, unless the emphasis on safe work is maintained can compromise the vehicles' safety and this appears to be what has happened with the jammed accelerators. The fix could have been designed in and is now having to be laboriously and expensively retrofitted. "Just in time" needs also to take into account "just in case".<br /><br />The design problems with the hybrid cars are different. This is new technology and as it develops there will be problems or perception of problems which will need to be addressed. Toyota's reputation has been severely damaged by all these problems across their range coming together at the same time. There is now a view that all Toyota cars are suspect, which knocks the second hand market and the demand for its new cars too. Nothing that Toyota has said to date has calmed the concerns. They need to get back to their mantra.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-53786186372186944702010-02-02T18:12:00.004+00:002010-02-02T18:24:34.730+00:00No-win, no-fee, no-helpIt so happens that a Society which I am involved with is arranging a coach trip for 50 people, many of them elderly, in June.<br /><br />I have asked the coach company for their insurance details and I thought I would check out whether the no-win, no-fee accident lawyers could give me any advice as to what other practical steps I should take in order to be able to meet any claims should they occur. Twice I phoned one of the longest established companies and in both cases I was told that this was not their role and the line was cut very quickly.<br /><br />I, of course will be working to ensure that no accidents happen, but I can now see that the no -win no-fee people are , as I always suspected, no-help.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-44240791132200634022010-01-26T20:06:00.003+00:002010-01-26T20:14:01.513+00:00Another nail in the coffin of the Japanes orange growerJapanese TV reported today that over the last decade the consumption of satsuma style oranges has dropped from 300 per person per year to 150 per person per year with the result that Japanese growers are facing financial hardship.<br /><br />The cause of the reduction is partly the change in the ways people socialise. Previously they would gather in the winter around a warm central point, often a hole in the floor with a heater over which a table was arranged and talk and eat statsumas and watch television. Now they get out more.<br /><br />The other culprit is fashion. Japanese girls are wearing longer nails and longer nails are just no good for peeling satsumas. Seems that the boys are too pathetic to do their own peeling. These are the steps down which a once great culture stumbles to oblivion.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-60857022385695279562009-12-07T17:32:00.003+00:002009-12-07T17:42:27.184+00:00A rare sightWatching the mill stream on Sunday in Wiltshire I noticed that something was making ripples through the water. I then saw the tail of an animal as it made its way across the spit of land that divides the mill stream from the mill race which, with the volume of water escaping ,was a mini Niagara and next thing a large otter surfaced and then dived into the turbulent mill race. Quite a special sight as there are probaly less than 2000 otters in England. Clearly in terms of managing the hazards of its territory the otter is very canny. The downfall in its numbers come from human risks which it can do nothing about. I became a devoted otter protector in a trice.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-37635660151298540532009-10-21T17:39:00.004+01:002009-10-21T17:49:52.087+01:00Handling money and flu transmissionAlthough I miss the Evening Standard newsellers in London, my all time favourite used to give me now and then a lobster or a brace of crabs caught from his lobster pots off Portland where he now lives, I recognise that if they have to be replaced by piles of free newspapers that this is a better time than most for it to happen.<br /><br />How come? Well the Evening Standard was selling 250,000 copies 5 nights a week. Money changed hands each time, often the only time in the day that people handled money. If you want to spread influenza quickly it is a good way to do it. So perhaps the unintended consequence of the loss of Evening Standard newsellers is a slowing of the transmission of the H1N1 flu virus.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-85039037608930994652009-10-14T09:43:00.002+01:002009-10-14T09:55:19.871+01:00"Fashion is Risk"The quote that provides the title of this blog comes from Sir Philip Green, the owner of Arcadia.<br />It is a good example of marketing as a risk management tool for upside risk. Fashion is about understanding and creating trends in the market place, about limiting the downside by not ordering too much stock , by offering at the right prices for the target market and by playing safe for at least part of a company's range when they are as big as the Arcadia Group.<br /><br />But it is also about taking risks, like starting up in New York where Top Shop is a new, unknown name. How does Sir Philip mitigate the risk? By linking with Kate Moss who is a well known fashion icon in New York, by careful research as to what will sell at what prices and in what sizes and colours, by choosing a store in a great location so that it gets maximum visibility and by revving up the publicity machine.<br /><br />Yes fashion is risk but a smart operator like Sir Philip knows how to manage the downside so he gets the upside benefit.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-83662585795010408922009-10-05T15:43:00.003+01:002009-10-05T15:57:21.348+01:00Suicide riskFrance Telecom has experienced 24 suicides in the last 18 months amongst its 100,000 employees. Several of the employees have left notes blaming the company's culture change since it was privatised for their action.<br /><br />The French put great store by solidarity with their fellow workers, far more so than in the UK. Yet the suicide rate was 17.6 per 100,000 people in France in 2005 (the latest date WHO data available on wikipedia) against the UK rate of 6.8 for a similarly sized population. In real lives this is a difference of over 6000 a year.<br /><br />I do not have a simple answer for this difference.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-82391504164208015292009-09-29T05:17:00.002+01:002009-09-29T05:26:02.768+01:00Low tolerance of ambiguityFor those amongst us who have low tolerance of ambiguity, who are only really comfortable when they have certainty in their lives, petty rules are a great comfort. They take the place in a secular society of the religious certainties.<br /><br />The recent story of two policewomen who were adjudged by Ofsted of having broken the law because they were taking turns looking after each others children is a case in point. The people at Ofsted appear to have abandoned discretion and common sense because they want certainty and the comfort that they cannot be blamed if something then happens to one of the children.<br /><br />Fact is that by such rigidity they have been blamed for being petty. You have to learn to live with risks and to distinguish which are really important. It is not easy but it is very necessary.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-85236612508600348352009-09-03T20:01:00.002+01:002009-09-03T20:05:11.279+01:00Unremitting vigilanceWe are currently in a lull regarding H1N1 influenza cases. Is the virus mutating and wilkl it come back as it did in 1918 far more virulent. No one knows for sure. In them meantime to paraphrase Margaret Chang of the WHO "Rather than blind panic or compacency in the face of the H1N! threat what is required in unremittiong vigilance.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-62057268394698399002009-08-14T13:32:00.002+01:002009-08-14T13:41:27.842+01:00The blunted edgeIt was pointed out to me yesterday by a real estate agent from the Pacific North West that the US is taking its lead from Europe on sustainable building methods all because the penalties for developing new systems and products are far more severe in the US if they go wrong in some way. This threat of litigation is blunting the edge of innovation, the desire to take risks in new areas. It is as though they have signed up en masse to the Hippocratic oath - "above all do no harm".David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-14589658585256664422009-07-16T12:41:00.004+01:002009-07-16T12:54:13.769+01:00View from the plinthOn Monday this week I went to Trafalgar Square to watch my friend, Lawrence Reed conduct his composition "The Ebb of Acrophobia" from the fourth plinth, the empty one. There was a "flash" orchestra summoned by Lawrence and the Internet of some 30 people, playing a wide variety of instruments and singing lustily when required.<br /><br />Lawrence suffers from Acrophobia which is the fear of heights - a fear sometimes so intense that it sparks a panic attack. The music reflected his anxiety at being perched up on the plinth.<br /><br />He risk managed the problem of standing up on the relatively narrow plinth and waving his arms around in order to conduct by sitting down in a camp chair and directing operations most expressively. In the course of the hour he had only one moment when he looked as if he was becoming apprehensive.<br /><br />The consumption of alcohol after the performance by performers and onlookers was sufficient to alleviate any panic attacks brought on by height, some of us were almost horizontal .David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-43972059340190957672009-07-14T13:06:00.004+01:002009-07-14T13:30:28.235+01:00The Liabilities for camera surveillanceWith video camera surveillance comes liability. There are three liability issues to be considered.<br /><br />1 Does the device create a false sense of security? Particularly important when dummy cameras have been used. Also it raises an expectation that the output is being monitored real time and that, in the event of an incident, remedial action will be swift. This could be an issue when school activities are being watched. Lack of attention by the operator, or not having an operator could create liability.<br />2 Is privacy being invaded? There are cultural norms at work here. Harrah's has cameras in its UK casino restrooms but not in its US ones, yet the drug and terrorist threats being monitored are relevant to both societies.<br />3 Is there a written policy that explains why video surveillance is needed and identifies how it will be used? If there is not then a challenge to its use may be hard to defend.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-68691255983532974822009-06-29T14:48:00.003+01:002009-06-29T15:07:29.184+01:00Michael Jackson and supply side riskMichael Jackson was paid advance fees for his sold out concerts. His estate is estimated to be $400 million dollars in debt, so it is unlikely that AEG Live, the promoters, will be seeing any recovery from that, unless the posthumous sales of his back catalogue can provide the necessary boost to the bank account. The evidence to date is of only minimal insurance cover, because Jackson had a history of not making many of his promised appearances and his health was known to be suspect.<br /><br />Whoever scheduled such a big series was clearly taking a significant risk. They had accurately determined the demand, but had failed to consider adequately the supply side risks. The contract between AEG Live and the artist will make interesting reading as to how certain risks were provided for. As for risk mitigation startegies ,will there be a series of memorial concerts which could fill the O2?David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-30071397307739349092009-06-13T07:40:00.003+01:002009-06-13T07:43:32.268+01:00The pigeon's revenge"Do you eat pigeon?" asked my dentist from Tipperary." They keep dentists in business, because the lead shot wrecks havoc on the molars."<br /><br />Just one more risk to be aware of.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-4673061202133229242009-05-29T09:35:00.003+01:002009-05-29T09:49:04.134+01:00Diving risksCarly Spencer,a very experienced diver, specialised in photographing wrecks on the ocean floor such as the Britannic liner in the Aegean, sunk by a mine in 1916. He also participated in medical trials and decompression tests run by universities in Europe and the US.<br /><br />He commented on the risks that he faced,saying" I am not reckless, my wife and kids are the most important things in the world to me. But I do get a kick out of knowing that I am putting myself at the edge."<br /><br />Sadly when filming the Britannic on May 24th he had an attack of the bends, which occur when divers come up from the depths too soon and nitrogen bubbles form in their blood. The attack was fatal.<br /><br />Risks like deep sea diving require very, very strong discipline, extremely reliable equipment and close study of how currents may affect the divers.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-75193009309593305652009-05-17T18:15:00.003+01:002009-05-17T18:24:15.914+01:00The oldest Builder in EnlgandThe building trade has ever been subject to violent fluctations of supply and demand with many famous companies going to the wall when times got tough.<br /><br />My favourite builder is a local one, Durtnell Ltd in Brasted Kent. It is a remarkable example of risk management over the centuries having been founded in 1591 and its first acknowledged building, Poundsbridge Manor, built for the Rector of Penshurst William Dartnall the father of the owner of the building company is still standing with a date on its front of 1593.<br /><br />The company has its offices on land owned by the family since 1496 and is managed by three members from the 12th generation of Durtnell's to run the company. It has a staff of 170 and a turnover of £40,000,000 and as a building business specialises in high quality work.<br /><br />It is the oldest builder in England and long may it prosper.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-14736482443148633692009-05-11T20:46:00.005+01:002009-05-11T20:56:51.173+01:00More "gai-atsu" pleaseSometime ago I wrote about how "gai-atsu" outside pressure was often needed in Japan to get people to reach a consensus and that without such pressure, usually in the past from the US , nothing got agreed.<br /><br />It showed up when Spitzer pressured the US brokers into revealing hidden commissions and now we see a fine specimen of "gai-atsu" in the British parliamentarians being forced to apologise and admit that the system of expenses that they have enjoyed so long is indefensible and a waste of public money. Have the revelations come officially from inside the House of Commons? No they have been leaked to the Daily Telegraph in greater scope and well before their agreed publication date.<br /><br />The resultant "gai-atsu" from the general public who are clearly fed up with the freeloading has forced all parties to apologise. Yet they are still hoping to limit the damage and return to something resembling their old ways. Would that we could apply "gai-atsu" to MEPs' expenses who operate at an even higher level of obfuscation.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-8489914415396119902009-05-06T16:12:00.004+01:002009-05-06T16:24:16.225+01:00The Benefits of PracticeThere has been a lot of coverage in the media regarding the H1N1 influenza and the possibility that it will soon be declared a pandemic. Some are questioning whether it is overdone.<br /><br />From a medical prespective the new strain of flu seems relatively mild, from a business continuity perspective the world is having to mobilise its defences and watch the results of various initiatives, most notably what impact closing down Mexico for a week will have.<br /><br />It is far too early to draw conclusions except to say that SARS helped to get people to take pandemics seriously and H1N1 will have the same effect, with the result that if it does mutate into something more lethal or when another strain comes along we will be better prepared to manage the situation so that it does not get out of control.<br /><br />Do not underestimate the benefits of practice for emergencies.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-43304418346391614202009-04-25T18:45:00.004+01:002009-04-25T18:53:35.897+01:00Black spot for white horse?Motorist don't just slow down and lose concentration when they see an accident site, they also gawp at landmarks and are advised by motoring authorities to pull off the road and then look, at the landmarks of course, not the accidents. Is the proposed White Horse of Kent going to create a traffic black spot?<br /><br />Just in case you were wondering where you need to avert your gaze here is the BBC's list<br /><br />The 10 most distracting landmarks in Britain<br />1. Stonehenge 2. Angel of the North 3. London Eye 4. Windsor Castle 5. Celtic Chalk Figures in Dorset 6. Wembley Stadium 7. Hadrian's Wall 8. Long Man of Willmington 9. Humber Bridge 10. The Wallace MonumentDavid Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-53325918079493295282009-04-24T09:15:00.004+01:002009-04-24T09:49:50.167+01:00Bulk of the passengersThere has been a great deal of comment recently about the Ryanair proposal, following a poll of their passengers,to charge very fat people extra for flying if they overlap their seat Unfortunately this is not turning into the public relations disaster they deserve for pandering to their passengers' prejudice. They are getting publicity and not many are criticising them.<br /><br />However their ploy is doubly cynical because not only are fat people an easy target, but also, as was explained on the BBC this morning, there is a perfectly well known example of how to manage this risk sensitively. South West Airlines in the US indicate that if you think you might not fit into a seat then you should consider buying the one next to you. In the event of the plane not being full then South West refund the cost of the extra ticket.<br /><br />South West's approach is ethical and compassionate and a good example of thinking about the risks from the point of view of not just the majority but also of those unfortunate not to fit the seat space. They exhibit far better risk management than Ryanair.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-68482440534723215472009-04-21T18:51:00.004+01:002009-04-21T20:42:41.404+01:00Guns are bad newsI have never agreed with the statement from the National Rifle Association that "guns don't kill people, people kill people."<br /><br />At the age of 11 ,when I edited the school magazine that I had founded, I was made aware by a poem that one of the other boys submitted for publication that guns came with problems. In praise of the benefits of using verse to get a message remembered I quote,<br /><br />"Never, ever let a gun,<br />Pointed be at anyone.<br />Loaded or unloaded be<br />Matters not the least to me".<br /><br />When at 18 I attended my first and only shoot, which was in South Africa with guinea fowl as the target, my very accomplished host lent me his over and under Japanese trap gun with no instruction whatsoever. Fortunately I decided that the aim was not to kill the birds, others were far more proficient at that, but to avoid killing the beaters or the other "guns". This I managed to do by only shooting straight up in the air and in that I was successful and the guinea fowl were shot by others in huge numbers.<br /><br />Even knowing what you are doing around guns does not provide for complete protection from their malign influence. One of my colleagues was on the British Olympic shooting team which did not go to Moscow because Thatcher decreed that no British military personnel should go in protest at the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Another, much more tragically, worked as the plant manager for English China Clays in Middle Georgia where hunting is a very popular pastime. During a period of deep depression this delightful, thoughtful family man shot himself because the gun was downstairs in the garage<br />.<br />Guns are bad news.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-53509762497721364772009-04-21T09:57:00.004+01:002009-04-21T10:01:27.614+01:00Furry perilHere is another example of unintended consequences reported by Kiwi Conservation:-<br /><br />"Possums are not native to New Zealand. The first possums were brought to New Zealand in 1837 from Australia.Possums are native to Australia and are protected there.Possums are not a problem in Australia. Many trees in Australia have possum defenses such as spines, prickles or poisonous leaves.In New Zealand possums have no natural enemies.That is why possum numbers increased so fast. The possum is not protected in New Zealand, it is a pest.Most native New Zealand trees have yummy leaves and no possum defenses.The possum is doing a lot of damage to the native plants, animals and birds."<br /><br />There are now 70 million possums in New Zealand.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8718555134961991761.post-88948810852759592192009-04-15T16:20:00.004+01:002009-04-15T16:29:11.662+01:00Installed prematurely - a novel excuseOn April 8th I sent the following complaint<br /><br />ComplaintsSubject: Road Traffic Safety<br /><br />On March 8th 2009 I was crossing at 2.30pm Crutched Friars in the City, about 20 metres from where the junction with Lloyd’s Avenue is. Looking left to ensure there was no traffic coming, it being a one way road for vehicles I was almost run over by a bicycle coming from the right. My first reaction and that of the person with me was that the cyclist was in the wrong, but on observing the traffic layout there is an arrow and an island clearly allowing this direction of travel for cyclists. Having worked in the area for 10 years it was the first time that I had paid any attention to this because it never seemed relevant to any crossing decision I would make.<br /><br />This is a very confusing arrangement for pedestrians, because it is so unusual and there is no reason to assume traffic is going to come from the right. In the event of a serious accident this could result in a corporate manslaughter charge against your planning department. There are far more pedestrians than cyclists in the City. I think you need to re-think this and any other streets with cyclists only access one way.<br /><br />On April 15th I got this reply ( my italics)<br /><br />I am sorry to hear of the incident on 8th March 2009. However, the cycling measures in Crutched Friars were <strong><em>installed prematurely</em></strong> by the contractor. <em><strong>Works at this location</strong></em> <em><strong>were stopped so that the issues can be discussed further</strong></em>. 'New' signs are still covered over. <br />Any cyclist using the street in the opposite direction to the traffic order and signs is currently liable for prosecution.<br />The Planning & Transportation Committee has resolved to review the introduction of the measures in Crutched Friars when it considers the results of the public consultation exercise on 7 similar schemes throughout the City. A thorough assessment of the proposed schemes has been undertaken using national guidance issued by the Department for Transport. Safety to all members of the public forms an integral part of that assessment. All these proposals will be re-assessed in the light of public and press reaction received and your concerns will be included in the report to the Planning & Transportation Committee.David Gamblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11821351224029776634noreply@blogger.com0