Saturday, 1 January 2011
New Year's glass half empty
New Year is a good time to note that optimists see the hour glass is half empty. There is still time for more experiences written in sand.
Wednesday, 27 October 2010
Thursday, 11 February 2010
Safe work is the door to all work
The Toyota mantra is "Safe work, reliable work, skilled work. Safe work is the door to all work. Let us pass through this door first."
As a simple expression of a risk management philosophy which all workers can understand it has worked well until the wheels started metaphorically coming off the Toyota juggernaut.
Some Toyota workers consider that the recalls are down to having recruited people who do not have the Toyota work ethic, but the recall problems are not the result of shoddy workmanship which would be rectified by recalling batches made by a particular shift in a plant. The problems are rather a matter of design. Some of the design problems are down to the enthusiasm with which Toyota cuts costs, an approach which, unless the emphasis on safe work is maintained can compromise the vehicles' safety and this appears to be what has happened with the jammed accelerators. The fix could have been designed in and is now having to be laboriously and expensively retrofitted. "Just in time" needs also to take into account "just in case".
The design problems with the hybrid cars are different. This is new technology and as it develops there will be problems or perception of problems which will need to be addressed. Toyota's reputation has been severely damaged by all these problems across their range coming together at the same time. There is now a view that all Toyota cars are suspect, which knocks the second hand market and the demand for its new cars too. Nothing that Toyota has said to date has calmed the concerns. They need to get back to their mantra.
As a simple expression of a risk management philosophy which all workers can understand it has worked well until the wheels started metaphorically coming off the Toyota juggernaut.
Some Toyota workers consider that the recalls are down to having recruited people who do not have the Toyota work ethic, but the recall problems are not the result of shoddy workmanship which would be rectified by recalling batches made by a particular shift in a plant. The problems are rather a matter of design. Some of the design problems are down to the enthusiasm with which Toyota cuts costs, an approach which, unless the emphasis on safe work is maintained can compromise the vehicles' safety and this appears to be what has happened with the jammed accelerators. The fix could have been designed in and is now having to be laboriously and expensively retrofitted. "Just in time" needs also to take into account "just in case".
The design problems with the hybrid cars are different. This is new technology and as it develops there will be problems or perception of problems which will need to be addressed. Toyota's reputation has been severely damaged by all these problems across their range coming together at the same time. There is now a view that all Toyota cars are suspect, which knocks the second hand market and the demand for its new cars too. Nothing that Toyota has said to date has calmed the concerns. They need to get back to their mantra.
Tuesday, 2 February 2010
No-win, no-fee, no-help
It so happens that a Society which I am involved with is arranging a coach trip for 50 people, many of them elderly, in June.
I have asked the coach company for their insurance details and I thought I would check out whether the no-win, no-fee accident lawyers could give me any advice as to what other practical steps I should take in order to be able to meet any claims should they occur. Twice I phoned one of the longest established companies and in both cases I was told that this was not their role and the line was cut very quickly.
I, of course will be working to ensure that no accidents happen, but I can now see that the no -win no-fee people are , as I always suspected, no-help.
I have asked the coach company for their insurance details and I thought I would check out whether the no-win, no-fee accident lawyers could give me any advice as to what other practical steps I should take in order to be able to meet any claims should they occur. Twice I phoned one of the longest established companies and in both cases I was told that this was not their role and the line was cut very quickly.
I, of course will be working to ensure that no accidents happen, but I can now see that the no -win no-fee people are , as I always suspected, no-help.
Tuesday, 26 January 2010
Another nail in the coffin of the Japanes orange grower
Japanese TV reported today that over the last decade the consumption of satsuma style oranges has dropped from 300 per person per year to 150 per person per year with the result that Japanese growers are facing financial hardship.
The cause of the reduction is partly the change in the ways people socialise. Previously they would gather in the winter around a warm central point, often a hole in the floor with a heater over which a table was arranged and talk and eat statsumas and watch television. Now they get out more.
The other culprit is fashion. Japanese girls are wearing longer nails and longer nails are just no good for peeling satsumas. Seems that the boys are too pathetic to do their own peeling. These are the steps down which a once great culture stumbles to oblivion.
The cause of the reduction is partly the change in the ways people socialise. Previously they would gather in the winter around a warm central point, often a hole in the floor with a heater over which a table was arranged and talk and eat statsumas and watch television. Now they get out more.
The other culprit is fashion. Japanese girls are wearing longer nails and longer nails are just no good for peeling satsumas. Seems that the boys are too pathetic to do their own peeling. These are the steps down which a once great culture stumbles to oblivion.
Monday, 7 December 2009
A rare sight
Watching the mill stream on Sunday in Wiltshire I noticed that something was making ripples through the water. I then saw the tail of an animal as it made its way across the spit of land that divides the mill stream from the mill race which, with the volume of water escaping ,was a mini Niagara and next thing a large otter surfaced and then dived into the turbulent mill race. Quite a special sight as there are probaly less than 2000 otters in England. Clearly in terms of managing the hazards of its territory the otter is very canny. The downfall in its numbers come from human risks which it can do nothing about. I became a devoted otter protector in a trice.
Wednesday, 21 October 2009
Handling money and flu transmission
Although I miss the Evening Standard newsellers in London, my all time favourite used to give me now and then a lobster or a brace of crabs caught from his lobster pots off Portland where he now lives, I recognise that if they have to be replaced by piles of free newspapers that this is a better time than most for it to happen.
How come? Well the Evening Standard was selling 250,000 copies 5 nights a week. Money changed hands each time, often the only time in the day that people handled money. If you want to spread influenza quickly it is a good way to do it. So perhaps the unintended consequence of the loss of Evening Standard newsellers is a slowing of the transmission of the H1N1 flu virus.
How come? Well the Evening Standard was selling 250,000 copies 5 nights a week. Money changed hands each time, often the only time in the day that people handled money. If you want to spread influenza quickly it is a good way to do it. So perhaps the unintended consequence of the loss of Evening Standard newsellers is a slowing of the transmission of the H1N1 flu virus.
Wednesday, 14 October 2009
"Fashion is Risk"
The quote that provides the title of this blog comes from Sir Philip Green, the owner of Arcadia.
It is a good example of marketing as a risk management tool for upside risk. Fashion is about understanding and creating trends in the market place, about limiting the downside by not ordering too much stock , by offering at the right prices for the target market and by playing safe for at least part of a company's range when they are as big as the Arcadia Group.
But it is also about taking risks, like starting up in New York where Top Shop is a new, unknown name. How does Sir Philip mitigate the risk? By linking with Kate Moss who is a well known fashion icon in New York, by careful research as to what will sell at what prices and in what sizes and colours, by choosing a store in a great location so that it gets maximum visibility and by revving up the publicity machine.
Yes fashion is risk but a smart operator like Sir Philip knows how to manage the downside so he gets the upside benefit.
It is a good example of marketing as a risk management tool for upside risk. Fashion is about understanding and creating trends in the market place, about limiting the downside by not ordering too much stock , by offering at the right prices for the target market and by playing safe for at least part of a company's range when they are as big as the Arcadia Group.
But it is also about taking risks, like starting up in New York where Top Shop is a new, unknown name. How does Sir Philip mitigate the risk? By linking with Kate Moss who is a well known fashion icon in New York, by careful research as to what will sell at what prices and in what sizes and colours, by choosing a store in a great location so that it gets maximum visibility and by revving up the publicity machine.
Yes fashion is risk but a smart operator like Sir Philip knows how to manage the downside so he gets the upside benefit.
Monday, 5 October 2009
Suicide risk
France Telecom has experienced 24 suicides in the last 18 months amongst its 100,000 employees. Several of the employees have left notes blaming the company's culture change since it was privatised for their action.
The French put great store by solidarity with their fellow workers, far more so than in the UK. Yet the suicide rate was 17.6 per 100,000 people in France in 2005 (the latest date WHO data available on wikipedia) against the UK rate of 6.8 for a similarly sized population. In real lives this is a difference of over 6000 a year.
I do not have a simple answer for this difference.
The French put great store by solidarity with their fellow workers, far more so than in the UK. Yet the suicide rate was 17.6 per 100,000 people in France in 2005 (the latest date WHO data available on wikipedia) against the UK rate of 6.8 for a similarly sized population. In real lives this is a difference of over 6000 a year.
I do not have a simple answer for this difference.
Tuesday, 29 September 2009
Low tolerance of ambiguity
For those amongst us who have low tolerance of ambiguity, who are only really comfortable when they have certainty in their lives, petty rules are a great comfort. They take the place in a secular society of the religious certainties.
The recent story of two policewomen who were adjudged by Ofsted of having broken the law because they were taking turns looking after each others children is a case in point. The people at Ofsted appear to have abandoned discretion and common sense because they want certainty and the comfort that they cannot be blamed if something then happens to one of the children.
Fact is that by such rigidity they have been blamed for being petty. You have to learn to live with risks and to distinguish which are really important. It is not easy but it is very necessary.
The recent story of two policewomen who were adjudged by Ofsted of having broken the law because they were taking turns looking after each others children is a case in point. The people at Ofsted appear to have abandoned discretion and common sense because they want certainty and the comfort that they cannot be blamed if something then happens to one of the children.
Fact is that by such rigidity they have been blamed for being petty. You have to learn to live with risks and to distinguish which are really important. It is not easy but it is very necessary.
Thursday, 3 September 2009
Unremitting vigilance
We are currently in a lull regarding H1N1 influenza cases. Is the virus mutating and wilkl it come back as it did in 1918 far more virulent. No one knows for sure. In them meantime to paraphrase Margaret Chang of the WHO "Rather than blind panic or compacency in the face of the H1N! threat what is required in unremittiong vigilance.
Friday, 14 August 2009
The blunted edge
It was pointed out to me yesterday by a real estate agent from the Pacific North West that the US is taking its lead from Europe on sustainable building methods all because the penalties for developing new systems and products are far more severe in the US if they go wrong in some way. This threat of litigation is blunting the edge of innovation, the desire to take risks in new areas. It is as though they have signed up en masse to the Hippocratic oath - "above all do no harm".
Thursday, 16 July 2009
View from the plinth
On Monday this week I went to Trafalgar Square to watch my friend, Lawrence Reed conduct his composition "The Ebb of Acrophobia" from the fourth plinth, the empty one. There was a "flash" orchestra summoned by Lawrence and the Internet of some 30 people, playing a wide variety of instruments and singing lustily when required.
Lawrence suffers from Acrophobia which is the fear of heights - a fear sometimes so intense that it sparks a panic attack. The music reflected his anxiety at being perched up on the plinth.
He risk managed the problem of standing up on the relatively narrow plinth and waving his arms around in order to conduct by sitting down in a camp chair and directing operations most expressively. In the course of the hour he had only one moment when he looked as if he was becoming apprehensive.
The consumption of alcohol after the performance by performers and onlookers was sufficient to alleviate any panic attacks brought on by height, some of us were almost horizontal .
Lawrence suffers from Acrophobia which is the fear of heights - a fear sometimes so intense that it sparks a panic attack. The music reflected his anxiety at being perched up on the plinth.
He risk managed the problem of standing up on the relatively narrow plinth and waving his arms around in order to conduct by sitting down in a camp chair and directing operations most expressively. In the course of the hour he had only one moment when he looked as if he was becoming apprehensive.
The consumption of alcohol after the performance by performers and onlookers was sufficient to alleviate any panic attacks brought on by height, some of us were almost horizontal .
Tuesday, 14 July 2009
The Liabilities for camera surveillance
With video camera surveillance comes liability. There are three liability issues to be considered.
1 Does the device create a false sense of security? Particularly important when dummy cameras have been used. Also it raises an expectation that the output is being monitored real time and that, in the event of an incident, remedial action will be swift. This could be an issue when school activities are being watched. Lack of attention by the operator, or not having an operator could create liability.
2 Is privacy being invaded? There are cultural norms at work here. Harrah's has cameras in its UK casino restrooms but not in its US ones, yet the drug and terrorist threats being monitored are relevant to both societies.
3 Is there a written policy that explains why video surveillance is needed and identifies how it will be used? If there is not then a challenge to its use may be hard to defend.
1 Does the device create a false sense of security? Particularly important when dummy cameras have been used. Also it raises an expectation that the output is being monitored real time and that, in the event of an incident, remedial action will be swift. This could be an issue when school activities are being watched. Lack of attention by the operator, or not having an operator could create liability.
2 Is privacy being invaded? There are cultural norms at work here. Harrah's has cameras in its UK casino restrooms but not in its US ones, yet the drug and terrorist threats being monitored are relevant to both societies.
3 Is there a written policy that explains why video surveillance is needed and identifies how it will be used? If there is not then a challenge to its use may be hard to defend.
Monday, 29 June 2009
Michael Jackson and supply side risk
Michael Jackson was paid advance fees for his sold out concerts. His estate is estimated to be $400 million dollars in debt, so it is unlikely that AEG Live, the promoters, will be seeing any recovery from that, unless the posthumous sales of his back catalogue can provide the necessary boost to the bank account. The evidence to date is of only minimal insurance cover, because Jackson had a history of not making many of his promised appearances and his health was known to be suspect.
Whoever scheduled such a big series was clearly taking a significant risk. They had accurately determined the demand, but had failed to consider adequately the supply side risks. The contract between AEG Live and the artist will make interesting reading as to how certain risks were provided for. As for risk mitigation startegies ,will there be a series of memorial concerts which could fill the O2?
Whoever scheduled such a big series was clearly taking a significant risk. They had accurately determined the demand, but had failed to consider adequately the supply side risks. The contract between AEG Live and the artist will make interesting reading as to how certain risks were provided for. As for risk mitigation startegies ,will there be a series of memorial concerts which could fill the O2?
Saturday, 13 June 2009
The pigeon's revenge
"Do you eat pigeon?" asked my dentist from Tipperary." They keep dentists in business, because the lead shot wrecks havoc on the molars."
Just one more risk to be aware of.
Just one more risk to be aware of.
Friday, 29 May 2009
Diving risks
Carly Spencer,a very experienced diver, specialised in photographing wrecks on the ocean floor such as the Britannic liner in the Aegean, sunk by a mine in 1916. He also participated in medical trials and decompression tests run by universities in Europe and the US.
He commented on the risks that he faced,saying" I am not reckless, my wife and kids are the most important things in the world to me. But I do get a kick out of knowing that I am putting myself at the edge."
Sadly when filming the Britannic on May 24th he had an attack of the bends, which occur when divers come up from the depths too soon and nitrogen bubbles form in their blood. The attack was fatal.
Risks like deep sea diving require very, very strong discipline, extremely reliable equipment and close study of how currents may affect the divers.
He commented on the risks that he faced,saying" I am not reckless, my wife and kids are the most important things in the world to me. But I do get a kick out of knowing that I am putting myself at the edge."
Sadly when filming the Britannic on May 24th he had an attack of the bends, which occur when divers come up from the depths too soon and nitrogen bubbles form in their blood. The attack was fatal.
Risks like deep sea diving require very, very strong discipline, extremely reliable equipment and close study of how currents may affect the divers.
Sunday, 17 May 2009
The oldest Builder in Enlgand
The building trade has ever been subject to violent fluctations of supply and demand with many famous companies going to the wall when times got tough.
My favourite builder is a local one, Durtnell Ltd in Brasted Kent. It is a remarkable example of risk management over the centuries having been founded in 1591 and its first acknowledged building, Poundsbridge Manor, built for the Rector of Penshurst William Dartnall the father of the owner of the building company is still standing with a date on its front of 1593.
The company has its offices on land owned by the family since 1496 and is managed by three members from the 12th generation of Durtnell's to run the company. It has a staff of 170 and a turnover of £40,000,000 and as a building business specialises in high quality work.
It is the oldest builder in England and long may it prosper.
My favourite builder is a local one, Durtnell Ltd in Brasted Kent. It is a remarkable example of risk management over the centuries having been founded in 1591 and its first acknowledged building, Poundsbridge Manor, built for the Rector of Penshurst William Dartnall the father of the owner of the building company is still standing with a date on its front of 1593.
The company has its offices on land owned by the family since 1496 and is managed by three members from the 12th generation of Durtnell's to run the company. It has a staff of 170 and a turnover of £40,000,000 and as a building business specialises in high quality work.
It is the oldest builder in England and long may it prosper.
Monday, 11 May 2009
More "gai-atsu" please
Sometime ago I wrote about how "gai-atsu" outside pressure was often needed in Japan to get people to reach a consensus and that without such pressure, usually in the past from the US , nothing got agreed.
It showed up when Spitzer pressured the US brokers into revealing hidden commissions and now we see a fine specimen of "gai-atsu" in the British parliamentarians being forced to apologise and admit that the system of expenses that they have enjoyed so long is indefensible and a waste of public money. Have the revelations come officially from inside the House of Commons? No they have been leaked to the Daily Telegraph in greater scope and well before their agreed publication date.
The resultant "gai-atsu" from the general public who are clearly fed up with the freeloading has forced all parties to apologise. Yet they are still hoping to limit the damage and return to something resembling their old ways. Would that we could apply "gai-atsu" to MEPs' expenses who operate at an even higher level of obfuscation.
It showed up when Spitzer pressured the US brokers into revealing hidden commissions and now we see a fine specimen of "gai-atsu" in the British parliamentarians being forced to apologise and admit that the system of expenses that they have enjoyed so long is indefensible and a waste of public money. Have the revelations come officially from inside the House of Commons? No they have been leaked to the Daily Telegraph in greater scope and well before their agreed publication date.
The resultant "gai-atsu" from the general public who are clearly fed up with the freeloading has forced all parties to apologise. Yet they are still hoping to limit the damage and return to something resembling their old ways. Would that we could apply "gai-atsu" to MEPs' expenses who operate at an even higher level of obfuscation.
Wednesday, 6 May 2009
The Benefits of Practice
There has been a lot of coverage in the media regarding the H1N1 influenza and the possibility that it will soon be declared a pandemic. Some are questioning whether it is overdone.
From a medical prespective the new strain of flu seems relatively mild, from a business continuity perspective the world is having to mobilise its defences and watch the results of various initiatives, most notably what impact closing down Mexico for a week will have.
It is far too early to draw conclusions except to say that SARS helped to get people to take pandemics seriously and H1N1 will have the same effect, with the result that if it does mutate into something more lethal or when another strain comes along we will be better prepared to manage the situation so that it does not get out of control.
Do not underestimate the benefits of practice for emergencies.
From a medical prespective the new strain of flu seems relatively mild, from a business continuity perspective the world is having to mobilise its defences and watch the results of various initiatives, most notably what impact closing down Mexico for a week will have.
It is far too early to draw conclusions except to say that SARS helped to get people to take pandemics seriously and H1N1 will have the same effect, with the result that if it does mutate into something more lethal or when another strain comes along we will be better prepared to manage the situation so that it does not get out of control.
Do not underestimate the benefits of practice for emergencies.
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