Kimche and Christmas

On Christmas Day the risks are all well known and there is a process in place to manage them in most households. The turkey has been bought, the oven is working, the guests have arrived, what could possibly go wrong?

This Christmas morning just passed I happened upon one of those low probability high impact risks which could create havoc. Opening one of the cupboards I came on a pack of kimche brought by my son for New Year with the instructions " keep refrigerated". As it was at ambient temperature it had started to ferment and the bag was puffed up like a balloon. I gingerly carried it outside and duly puctured the bag which produced a singularly revolting smell of fermented garlic. Imagine if it had exploded during Christmas lunch - we would have had to evacuate the house!

A day to remember

October 27th is the anniversary of Vasili Arkhipov's intervention that prevented a Soviet submarine firing nuclear torpedos at a US destroyer at the height of the Cuban missile crisis. Raise a glass in remembrance of a very gallant officer.

High Impact, low probability risk

For more than 10 years the Council of the Association of Insurance and Risk Managers ( AIRMIC) have insisted that their reserves be placed with three separate banks, despite their lead bank offering significantly better interest rates. An example of risk managing for what, for the last ten years, would have been seen as a high impact but low probability risk.

There's nowt so queer as folk

Looking at some of the news stories I am continually amazed at the low probability high impact stories which surface. It is, of course, the low probability which provides for the surprise element.

Talking of "surprise element" one of the stories was the tragic tale of the Polish visitor to England who relieved himself on the railway track. Not a problem in Poland where, if I remember rightly, the electricity cables are overhead. Sadly in the UK with the live rail right next to the usual track his mistake was fatal.

Then there were the three US crew who were found asleep on the job. Problem was that their job included access to nuclear weapon codes. Question I would like an answer to is" what were the conditions that made them all doze off?" Then it turned out we had not been in as much danger as it seemed as the codes they were guarding were out of date. Maybe we should go back to using geese, at least they don't sleep on the job.

Then there was the report that there have been 300,000 traffic accidents which have been caused, it was claimed, by SatNav, or rather by listening to SatNav and not using enough gumption. Imagine what a swarm of lemmings could do with SatNav - they might avoid going over the cliff. Unintended consequence.

Growler

Nigel Lucas, the Chairman of Risk Publishing Online, was an officer in the merchant marine years ago and tells me that , contrary to landlubbers' belief that all icebergs are 10% above the waterline there is another type which is totally submerged. This is called by sailors a " growler" presumably from the noise the hull makes on contact.

In risk management terms you either need sophisticated sonic detectors to pick it up or a look out on the prow of the ship.

Whatever the detection method "growler" is a great name for risks which you cannot identify until almost on top of them, but which lurk just under the radar! The people best able to detect them are at the sharp end of the business.

Off the record

The National Archive at Kew , guardian amongst other things of the Domesday Book, has a deserved reputation for protecting the national records. It has tight control on all access to its material as theft is one of the major risks it faces.

What has recently come to light, aired on a BBC radio show, is that someone has been adding material to the archive without permission, creating false records which have then been used, it is thought, to support sensationalist claims in books relating to World War 2 events. Over 20 false records have been identified and new controls are now in place to stop this happening again.

Once there is doubt about the records then the damage to the reputation of the National Archive is very signficant because researchers do not know whether the document they are quoting is authentic or not.

A fall from a roof top

One Chinese definition of "schadenfreude" is " it is pleasant to see an old friend fall from a roof top."

I disagree. Having yesterday attended the funeral of a friend, who had fallen from his roof just before last Christmas whilst clearing the gutters of leaves ,I can say that there is nothing pleasant at all, just general shock and sadness that a very fit and popular man should be cut down in the prime of life.

Much more to the point is the realisation of how the low probability, high impact events can cause such disastrous consequences. Of course you may say that going up onto the roof is inherently dangerous and therefore the probability was not so low, but my friend, who had lived in the house for 30 years and had doubtless gone on to the roof every year to deal with the leaves, had not considered it a risky venture, confident as he was in his knowledge of the roof, which was not very high and of his own excellent balance and agility. He was a man, who having retired early from a large accountancy practice, had not the slightest interest in risk taking either financial or physical.

Because he did not see the risk as severe he went onto the roof unprepared - no harness, no one to stand at the bottom of the ladder and, most importantly, for it would have saved his life - no hard hat. I don't blame him, I have done the same many times, but I won't in future, for I have been made aware in a most terrible way of the perils of taking risk lightly at home, where we automatically assume that nothing bad can befall us. I tell this story in the hope that those who read it will think more positively of hard hats and wear them when appropriate.

Now if the Chinese had said " it is pleasant to see an arrogant hypocrite fall from the roof top" then I would have taken the roof top to be the metaphorical one which Mr. Spitzer fell off and joined in the clouds of schadenfreude wafting down Wall Street. But an arrogant hypocrite by definition does not equal a friend.