Low tolerance of ambiguity

For those amongst us who have low tolerance of ambiguity, who are only really comfortable when they have certainty in their lives, petty rules are a great comfort. They take the place in a secular society of the religious certainties.

The recent story of two policewomen who were adjudged by Ofsted of having broken the law because they were taking turns looking after each others children is a case in point. The people at Ofsted appear to have abandoned discretion and common sense because they want certainty and the comfort that they cannot be blamed if something then happens to one of the children.

Fact is that by such rigidity they have been blamed for being petty. You have to learn to live with risks and to distinguish which are really important. It is not easy but it is very necessary.

Unremitting vigilance

We are currently in a lull regarding H1N1 influenza cases. Is the virus mutating and wilkl it come back as it did in 1918 far more virulent. No one knows for sure. In them meantime to paraphrase Margaret Chang of the WHO "Rather than blind panic or compacency in the face of the H1N! threat what is required in unremittiong vigilance.

The blunted edge

It was pointed out to me yesterday by a real estate agent from the Pacific North West that the US is taking its lead from Europe on sustainable building methods all because the penalties for developing new systems and products are far more severe in the US if they go wrong in some way. This threat of litigation is blunting the edge of innovation, the desire to take risks in new areas. It is as though they have signed up en masse to the Hippocratic oath - "above all do no harm".

View from the plinth

On Monday this week I went to Trafalgar Square to watch my friend, Lawrence Reed conduct his composition "The Ebb of Acrophobia" from the fourth plinth, the empty one. There was a "flash" orchestra summoned by Lawrence and the Internet of some 30 people, playing a wide variety of instruments and singing lustily when required.

Lawrence suffers from Acrophobia which is the fear of heights - a fear sometimes so intense that it sparks a panic attack. The music reflected his anxiety at being perched up on the plinth.

He risk managed the problem of standing up on the relatively narrow plinth and waving his arms around in order to conduct by sitting down in a camp chair and directing operations most expressively. In the course of the hour he had only one moment when he looked as if he was becoming apprehensive.

The consumption of alcohol after the performance by performers and onlookers was sufficient to alleviate any panic attacks brought on by height, some of us were almost horizontal .

The Liabilities for camera surveillance

With video camera surveillance comes liability. There are three liability issues to be considered.

1 Does the device create a false sense of security? Particularly important when dummy cameras have been used. Also it raises an expectation that the output is being monitored real time and that, in the event of an incident, remedial action will be swift. This could be an issue when school activities are being watched. Lack of attention by the operator, or not having an operator could create liability.
2 Is privacy being invaded? There are cultural norms at work here. Harrah's has cameras in its UK casino restrooms but not in its US ones, yet the drug and terrorist threats being monitored are relevant to both societies.
3 Is there a written policy that explains why video surveillance is needed and identifies how it will be used? If there is not then a challenge to its use may be hard to defend.

Michael Jackson and supply side risk

Michael Jackson was paid advance fees for his sold out concerts. His estate is estimated to be $400 million dollars in debt, so it is unlikely that AEG Live, the promoters, will be seeing any recovery from that, unless the posthumous sales of his back catalogue can provide the necessary boost to the bank account. The evidence to date is of only minimal insurance cover, because Jackson had a history of not making many of his promised appearances and his health was known to be suspect.

Whoever scheduled such a big series was clearly taking a significant risk. They had accurately determined the demand, but had failed to consider adequately the supply side risks. The contract between AEG Live and the artist will make interesting reading as to how certain risks were provided for. As for risk mitigation startegies ,will there be a series of memorial concerts which could fill the O2?

The pigeon's revenge

"Do you eat pigeon?" asked my dentist from Tipperary." They keep dentists in business, because the lead shot wrecks havoc on the molars."

Just one more risk to be aware of.

Diving risks

Carly Spencer,a very experienced diver, specialised in photographing wrecks on the ocean floor such as the Britannic liner in the Aegean, sunk by a mine in 1916. He also participated in medical trials and decompression tests run by universities in Europe and the US.

He commented on the risks that he faced,saying" I am not reckless, my wife and kids are the most important things in the world to me. But I do get a kick out of knowing that I am putting myself at the edge."

Sadly when filming the Britannic on May 24th he had an attack of the bends, which occur when divers come up from the depths too soon and nitrogen bubbles form in their blood. The attack was fatal.

Risks like deep sea diving require very, very strong discipline, extremely reliable equipment and close study of how currents may affect the divers.

The oldest Builder in Enlgand

The building trade has ever been subject to violent fluctations of supply and demand with many famous companies going to the wall when times got tough.

My favourite builder is a local one, Durtnell Ltd in Brasted Kent. It is a remarkable example of risk management over the centuries having been founded in 1591 and its first acknowledged building, Poundsbridge Manor, built for the Rector of Penshurst William Dartnall the father of the owner of the building company is still standing with a date on its front of 1593.

The company has its offices on land owned by the family since 1496 and is managed by three members from the 12th generation of Durtnell's to run the company. It has a staff of 170 and a turnover of £40,000,000 and as a building business specialises in high quality work.

It is the oldest builder in England and long may it prosper.

More "gai-atsu" please

Sometime ago I wrote about how "gai-atsu" outside pressure was often needed in Japan to get people to reach a consensus and that without such pressure, usually in the past from the US , nothing got agreed.

It showed up when Spitzer pressured the US brokers into revealing hidden commissions and now we see a fine specimen of "gai-atsu" in the British parliamentarians being forced to apologise and admit that the system of expenses that they have enjoyed so long is indefensible and a waste of public money. Have the revelations come officially from inside the House of Commons? No they have been leaked to the Daily Telegraph in greater scope and well before their agreed publication date.

The resultant "gai-atsu" from the general public who are clearly fed up with the freeloading has forced all parties to apologise. Yet they are still hoping to limit the damage and return to something resembling their old ways. Would that we could apply "gai-atsu" to MEPs' expenses who operate at an even higher level of obfuscation.