Michael Jackson and supply side risk

Michael Jackson was paid advance fees for his sold out concerts. His estate is estimated to be $400 million dollars in debt, so it is unlikely that AEG Live, the promoters, will be seeing any recovery from that, unless the posthumous sales of his back catalogue can provide the necessary boost to the bank account. The evidence to date is of only minimal insurance cover, because Jackson had a history of not making many of his promised appearances and his health was known to be suspect.

Whoever scheduled such a big series was clearly taking a significant risk. They had accurately determined the demand, but had failed to consider adequately the supply side risks. The contract between AEG Live and the artist will make interesting reading as to how certain risks were provided for. As for risk mitigation startegies ,will there be a series of memorial concerts which could fill the O2?

The pigeon's revenge

"Do you eat pigeon?" asked my dentist from Tipperary." They keep dentists in business, because the lead shot wrecks havoc on the molars."

Just one more risk to be aware of.

Diving risks

Carly Spencer,a very experienced diver, specialised in photographing wrecks on the ocean floor such as the Britannic liner in the Aegean, sunk by a mine in 1916. He also participated in medical trials and decompression tests run by universities in Europe and the US.

He commented on the risks that he faced,saying" I am not reckless, my wife and kids are the most important things in the world to me. But I do get a kick out of knowing that I am putting myself at the edge."

Sadly when filming the Britannic on May 24th he had an attack of the bends, which occur when divers come up from the depths too soon and nitrogen bubbles form in their blood. The attack was fatal.

Risks like deep sea diving require very, very strong discipline, extremely reliable equipment and close study of how currents may affect the divers.

The oldest Builder in Enlgand

The building trade has ever been subject to violent fluctations of supply and demand with many famous companies going to the wall when times got tough.

My favourite builder is a local one, Durtnell Ltd in Brasted Kent. It is a remarkable example of risk management over the centuries having been founded in 1591 and its first acknowledged building, Poundsbridge Manor, built for the Rector of Penshurst William Dartnall the father of the owner of the building company is still standing with a date on its front of 1593.

The company has its offices on land owned by the family since 1496 and is managed by three members from the 12th generation of Durtnell's to run the company. It has a staff of 170 and a turnover of £40,000,000 and as a building business specialises in high quality work.

It is the oldest builder in England and long may it prosper.

More "gai-atsu" please

Sometime ago I wrote about how "gai-atsu" outside pressure was often needed in Japan to get people to reach a consensus and that without such pressure, usually in the past from the US , nothing got agreed.

It showed up when Spitzer pressured the US brokers into revealing hidden commissions and now we see a fine specimen of "gai-atsu" in the British parliamentarians being forced to apologise and admit that the system of expenses that they have enjoyed so long is indefensible and a waste of public money. Have the revelations come officially from inside the House of Commons? No they have been leaked to the Daily Telegraph in greater scope and well before their agreed publication date.

The resultant "gai-atsu" from the general public who are clearly fed up with the freeloading has forced all parties to apologise. Yet they are still hoping to limit the damage and return to something resembling their old ways. Would that we could apply "gai-atsu" to MEPs' expenses who operate at an even higher level of obfuscation.

The Benefits of Practice

There has been a lot of coverage in the media regarding the H1N1 influenza and the possibility that it will soon be declared a pandemic. Some are questioning whether it is overdone.

From a medical prespective the new strain of flu seems relatively mild, from a business continuity perspective the world is having to mobilise its defences and watch the results of various initiatives, most notably what impact closing down Mexico for a week will have.

It is far too early to draw conclusions except to say that SARS helped to get people to take pandemics seriously and H1N1 will have the same effect, with the result that if it does mutate into something more lethal or when another strain comes along we will be better prepared to manage the situation so that it does not get out of control.

Do not underestimate the benefits of practice for emergencies.

Black spot for white horse?

Motorist don't just slow down and lose concentration when they see an accident site, they also gawp at landmarks and are advised by motoring authorities to pull off the road and then look, at the landmarks of course, not the accidents. Is the proposed White Horse of Kent going to create a traffic black spot?

Just in case you were wondering where you need to avert your gaze here is the BBC's list

The 10 most distracting landmarks in Britain
1. Stonehenge 2. Angel of the North 3. London Eye 4. Windsor Castle 5. Celtic Chalk Figures in Dorset 6. Wembley Stadium 7. Hadrian's Wall 8. Long Man of Willmington 9. Humber Bridge 10. The Wallace Monument

Bulk of the passengers

There has been a great deal of comment recently about the Ryanair proposal, following a poll of their passengers,to charge very fat people extra for flying if they overlap their seat Unfortunately this is not turning into the public relations disaster they deserve for pandering to their passengers' prejudice. They are getting publicity and not many are criticising them.

However their ploy is doubly cynical because not only are fat people an easy target, but also, as was explained on the BBC this morning, there is a perfectly well known example of how to manage this risk sensitively. South West Airlines in the US indicate that if you think you might not fit into a seat then you should consider buying the one next to you. In the event of the plane not being full then South West refund the cost of the extra ticket.

South West's approach is ethical and compassionate and a good example of thinking about the risks from the point of view of not just the majority but also of those unfortunate not to fit the seat space. They exhibit far better risk management than Ryanair.

Guns are bad news

I have never agreed with the statement from the National Rifle Association that "guns don't kill people, people kill people."

At the age of 11 ,when I edited the school magazine that I had founded, I was made aware by a poem that one of the other boys submitted for publication that guns came with problems. In praise of the benefits of using verse to get a message remembered I quote,

"Never, ever let a gun,
Pointed be at anyone.
Loaded or unloaded be
Matters not the least to me".

When at 18 I attended my first and only shoot, which was in South Africa with guinea fowl as the target, my very accomplished host lent me his over and under Japanese trap gun with no instruction whatsoever. Fortunately I decided that the aim was not to kill the birds, others were far more proficient at that, but to avoid killing the beaters or the other "guns". This I managed to do by only shooting straight up in the air and in that I was successful and the guinea fowl were shot by others in huge numbers.

Even knowing what you are doing around guns does not provide for complete protection from their malign influence. One of my colleagues was on the British Olympic shooting team which did not go to Moscow because Thatcher decreed that no British military personnel should go in protest at the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Another, much more tragically, worked as the plant manager for English China Clays in Middle Georgia where hunting is a very popular pastime. During a period of deep depression this delightful, thoughtful family man shot himself because the gun was downstairs in the garage
.
Guns are bad news.

Furry peril

Here is another example of unintended consequences reported by Kiwi Conservation:-

"Possums are not native to New Zealand. The first possums were brought to New Zealand in 1837 from Australia.Possums are native to Australia and are protected there.Possums are not a problem in Australia. Many trees in Australia have possum defenses such as spines, prickles or poisonous leaves.In New Zealand possums have no natural enemies.That is why possum numbers increased so fast. The possum is not protected in New Zealand, it is a pest.Most native New Zealand trees have yummy leaves and no possum defenses.The possum is doing a lot of damage to the native plants, animals and birds."

There are now 70 million possums in New Zealand.